Up or down?, you decide - Noble group

Chart showing past 1 year

 















As shown from the chart, it seem like noble is on an uptrend since early September. The trend continued in a narrow channel(brown bold parallel line) till late Nov, at the price of around $1.12. There was even an golden cross of 50ma vs 150ma. However, since then price came crushing down to around $1.03, which then was supported by the 50ma. So why did it hit $1.12 than came down?

Lets take a closer analysis by looking at the 2 year chart.

Chart Showing past 2 years (on weekly basis, to present more clarity)

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As you can see, the price action has been moving in a major down trend channel (brown parallel line) for the past 2 years. And the recent high of $1.12 is actually the resistance of the upper trend line. Hence, price will have to break the resistance line to truly indicate an reversal. This would be wiser not to take any position at the current moment and wait for clearer signal. A break below the 50ma support will means the down trend is likely to continue. While a clear break above the down trend line(upper) would signal a trend reversal. But the wiser would definitely not bet against the trend.

For now, as the topic goes... :)